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March 23, 2014

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Is Venice the next Catalan or Scotland? Are we entering the era of Europe fracturing into micro states?

1. Maybe. There's some room for devolution in Italy, and if Italian politics continue to be Venice isn't. The poll was online only, and not representative of the wider Venetian population.

2a. Even if all the likely candidates for secession left their parent states--Scotland, Flanders and Wallonia+Brussels, Catalonia and Euzkadi, Venice (and almost certainly) South Tyrol--the resulting states would all be larger than the smallest EU member-states in terms of population and landmass, and would more often rank well alongside reasonably substantial established nation-states like Denmark, Austria, or Finland.

2b. If all the likely candidates left, there wouldn't be any additional fragmentation. Bavarian, Breton, Yorkshire, or Andalusian separatisms often don't even exist, never mind have a mass base.

Randy, a Scottish 'yes' - especially one which results in an independence-lite scenario for the fUK, and/or one which threatens to re-position Trident in Milford Haven - is going to be worth a good few percentage points and possible rosy scenarios for Welsh nationalists.

After that, I agree re Yorkshire. I would bet very lightly on Cornwall being the only bit of England to consider independence, followed a long way down the line by the north-east. Within the British Isles, the Manx might decide that the Crown government which they'd rather come under is the one in Embra not the one in London.

PS I share Noel's position on Spanish footy for reasons which are less personal but otherwise very similar.

Would the Welsh follow suit? Plaid Cymru and Welsh separatism doesn't seem to have been doing nearly as well as their northern counterparts.

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