In February of 2013, a group of scholars at NYU developed three possible scenarios for Syria’s future through 2018. With some updating through June 2013, you can find them at this link. Obviously none of them will happen in detail, but the general outlines are not implausible.
None of the three scenarios involves regime collapse nor government victory. Scenario #1 is an internationalized civil war that destabilizes the neighbors. Scenario #2 is a protracted but contained conflict. Scenario #3 is partition, with U.N. peacekeepers separating a government-held south from an unstable rebel-controlled north.
(An earlier version of this post gave my opinions here. I need to stop editing as I go.)
Are we headed towards something like one of these scenarios, and if so, which one?