It looks like Ecuador is backing away from Snowden. Their position now boils down to the following: if he can get here (or at least to one of our embassies) then we will consider his petition.
The reason does not seem to be American pressure. The first arrow in the American quiver would be Ecuador’s preferences under the Andean Trade Preference Act. Only now Ecuador has unilaterally renounced its benefits! So it ain’t that.
Rather, it seems that the diplomatic staff in London was going off the reservation and giving the impression that Julian Assange ran Ecuadorean foreign policy. So President Correa cooled things off by stating that Ecuador would do nothing unless and until Snowden got to its territory.
If I had to guess, I think that Ecuador would grant asylum if Snowden could get there. I think it is a risk that Mr. Snowden should be willing to take. The question really is whether the Russians (and Cubans, since no Ecuadorean jet can reach Moscow directly and the only commercial flights go through Cuba) will let him. I have no doubt that Raúl Castro would be fine with letting him change planes. The Ecuadoreans might be reluctant to let him board a TAME flight in Havana without a passport (although I would bet that Correa would let him) but that would mean only the need for a flight through Venezuela. And honestly, President Maduro would not have a problem.
So it is up to President Putin. Alas for Mr. Snowden. What does Putin want?