President Kirchner has recently tried to raise a ruckus about the Malvinas. The reasons have to do with domestic politics, but recent changes have done two things: they have made the islands far more tempting for Argentina and made it far less likely that the country could retake them.
The first thing is oil. On May 6, 2010, Rockhopper discovered oil on its infelicitously- named Sea Lion block just north of the islands. (Then again, Sea Lion was impossible, so maybe it’s a good name.) So far, seven of nine Rockhopper appraisal wells have come up positive. Production will start in 2017; estimates are that Sea Lion will eventually produce somewhere between 85,000 and 120,000 bpd. At $80 per barrel wellhead and $10 lifting cost, that would be about $3 billion per year in rents to scrap over. (Even fully costed at $50 per barrel, that would be a cool $1.3 billion.)
So there is something to fight about besides national pride. Of course, Argentina would need to have international backing if it was to sell that oil ... but the country has a big enough domestic market.
Nonetheless, any planning for a war would need very careful diplomatic preparation these days, much more than in 1982. Back then, Argentina was following a long line of actions that held that the “1945 line” did not hold for European overseas territories. Morocco could invade the Spanish Sahara, India could fight a war with Portugal for Goa, Indonesia could march into East Timor and Dutch New Guinea. Given this history, it was not (completely) crazy for the Argentine generals to think that the world would accept their victory. (And to be honest, I suspect that they were right: if they had won, las Malvinas hubieran sido argentinas.)
But that is not the case today, even though plenty of countries support the Argentine claim. So problem #1 would be to secure enough backing to prevent the imposition of U.N. sanctions.
And problem #2? Well, military technology has advanced:
You got it. The Exocet, so devastating in 1982, is not worth much against a modern British destroyer. It gets worse. The U.K. keeps four modern Typhoons on-station at the Mount Pleasant air base in the islands; Argentina would need to take it out somehow with an air force consisting mostly of outdated Mirages and Super Etendards. (The Mirages are scheduled to be withdrawn from service this year, leaving a few Skyhawks ... a 1954 design acquired in 1997.) Add to all that the 1,200 men at the airbase and British access to intelligence. The result? No chance of success.
Well, there are always people ready to concoct James Bond-like plans where Argentina packs in a bunch of special forces into a civilian airliner, assaults the base from the ground and then dares the U.K. to take it back without access to an aircraft carrier. That scenario is silly. And even if it happened, expect the Argentines to be pounded from the sea and air.
In other words, even if Argentina assembled the necessary diplomatic support, a war will not happen because a war could not be won.