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October 29, 2012

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Hey Noel, what about the option of appealing to the Supreme Court? Given a) the implication of the ruling on future sovereign restructurings and b) possible effects on intermediary banks it seems like the Supreme Court might want to take up the case and even shoot down some of Griesa's rulings...

My guess is that Argentina will take it up to the Supreme Court, but I doubt that they'll overturn this particular ruling.

I can't speak to the pari passu argument, but my instinct is that the Supreme Court won't take the appeal. As far as enforcement is concerned, the Court already decided in Weltover that the issuance of sovereign debt was a commercial activity under the FSIA.

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