The polls substantially overstated Peña’s lead in the run-up to the election. My initial thought was that the undecideds broke for AMLO, but Diego’s evidence is that the polls had a systematic bias. Considering the prevalent use of face-to-face polling, and that the polls were more accurate in 2006, that’s surprising, but the information should lead to better polling in the future. (And good job offers for Mr. Valle, I hope.)
The results are still not in, but it looks like the PRI will take Congress. So far the PRI (or the hard-to-explain PRI-Green coalition) has won 187 out of the 300 first-past-the-post districts. They also appear to have gotten 58% of the congressional vote (tossing the Greens running alone, who did not make the 2% threshold) which (I think! It gets complicated) will give them more-or-less 116 of the PR seats. That is rather more than 250, and thus they should have a majority in the House.
The Senate is less clear. The PRI won 18 states outright, which gives them 36 out of 128 senators. They appear to have come in second in 13 more states, upping their total to 49. Then the two received about 56% of the vote, which will give them (once again, more-or-less, it’s complicated) another 17 seats for a total of 66 ... a 2-vote majority. Recounts and the complications of the PR process could lose them that edge.
Finally, it looks like AMLO is calling fraud. It is indubitably true that the election was far from perfect: see some evidence on Mex Files, and note that the early reporting system clearly broke down for a while. But that, of course, is far from saying that the election was fraudulent. This stuff from Anonymous is entertaining, but not credible, and the anecdotal evidence is, well, anecdotal; only PRI-favoring errors have been reported.
After 2006, I get worried about these sorts of claims. A legal challenge is one thing, once again going to the streets or occupying Congress is quite another. Richard Grabman predicts more such events; I can only hope that he is wrong. Considering that the margins in most districts are quite substantial (and the overall presidential margin ain’t nada) I suspect that he is.
But I do not know. I worry, at least a little. But let’s stay optimistic!