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June 01, 2012

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Heh, ADN Político has a poll of polls

Let's see what happens!

I concur :-) However, I actually believe that it´s not even so much Peña Nieto support dropping significantly, if not undecided voters starting to make up their minds and opting for AMLO, possibly encouraged by the recent anti-EPN protests.

A few weeks back Reforma stated some 32% of voters were still undecided, which is obviously a significant chunk of the electorate. A large share of those swing voters may have been scared off by AMLO because of his 2006 antics, but didn´t want to vote for EPN either. AMLO´s campaign is fairly moderate and solid, whereas JVM´s and EPN´s campaigns are dented by now. Perhaps the Ibero-incident ad the subsequent ´Yo soy #132´-protests have pushed some of them into AMLO´s direction.

Here in Edomex EPN´s rallies were attended by large groups of people who turned out to have no idea who he was or even what they were doing there. Apparently they had been paid by the local diputado (often just with a bag of groceries) to attend the meeting, and obviously late on vote for him. More than any other part the PRI still uses those kinds of tactics to buy votes, and in the states controlled by the party that will definitely happen on election day.

What I mean to say by this is that the PRI´s support is fragile, but only on the periphery of PAN-weary voters. In absolute terms EPN won´t lose many votes, but in relative terms he is: AMLO is still gaining, because the very large undecided segment is now swinging towards him. That should make quite a few people in the PRI nervous.

At least that´s my theory!

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