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January 11, 2012

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I remember that exercise. It was awesome for the slap in the face it gave. However, I suspect that the recon element of it is a bit tougher than the exercise gave for the faux Iranians.

That said, we are steaming in two carriers and one is in the area already. That have around 120 fighters. The most they would face would be 300 odd fighters which most are what we or the Chinese have sold them. I'd be hesitant to say that they would do well.

Isn't the real risk that a mere threat of military action would cause insurance rates to rise to impossible levels?

I'm curious what you think China and Russia are doing during this theoretical war. It seems like their counterforce may be almost as strong in the real world as in the UN Security Council.

I'm not sure that I understand the question. China won't do anything but want it to be over; it's hard to imagine Russia doing anything in the face of an Iranian act of war, which blocking the straits would be. But I'm not sure that answered the question.

China and Russia have basically zero effective force projection capability in the region. So, there's not actually much they could do.

Russia could certainly sell weapons to Iran (as they've done in the past, and are they're doing with Syria right now), but this would probably not have much military impact unless the conflict drags on much longer than expected.


Doug M.

Much of the oil exported out of the Straits heads east to China.

The Chinese would likely either offer to contribute a couple of ships (probably the two 042s and a fleet tanker they have on piracy patrol, or perhaps they'd put together a bigger group centred on one of their new LPDs) to the international task force, thus guaranteeing their voice in the eventual settlement and asserting their arrival as a sea power while gaining credit with the US and EU, or else try to browbeat Iran diplomatically into giving in before it all went kinetic, thus establishing a protector-client relationship and earning credit by turning up at the last moment with a solution.

The Russians, I think, would do nothing of any consequence, might whine a little or even a lot, and would be very happy to replace the weapons used or destroyed, at the usual rates on this here price list.

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