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August 16, 2009

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Noel,

AFAIK, and I´d love to discuss this further and with more informed facts to put on the table:

- There are LOTS OF NEEDS infrastructurewise, not too many projects (not gzillions at least) with well identified and clearly defined financial structures, sources of repayment and guarantees for private investments.

- The revenue side is currently in a state of emergency as latest news have it, specially because of the dependency on oil and the lack of political will to implement fiscal reform that focuses on expanding the taxable base... ie, IVA to alimentos and medicinas.

How were your interviews with energy experts? Love to have a chat abt that if it is possible.

Take care
CARLOS

Hi, Carlos,

The talks were fascinating; I'd be happy to discuss them, although I've got to keep some names confidential.

I thought that Mexico had lots of "shovel ready" infrastructure ready to go; I'm surprised to hear that's not the case! Have I made the rookie error of thinking that the D.F. is representative of the country?

In addition, I still don't understand is why the government doesn't let the budget deficit rise above 3.5%. Oil isn't that far below the $70 reference price, and while production is falling, it isn't falling that fast. So why cut spending at all this year? They seem to be afraid of an adverse market reaction that shows little sign of happening.

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