Speculation in world oil markets?

  I report; you decide.

Now, these figures don't include stocks of refined oil products.  Perhaps speculation is easier in final products linked to the price of crude, rather than crude?

These figures don't include Chinese stocks, which are available but are also a bear to download and input.  They do include stocks held overseas, or on tankers.

Of course, Chinese stocks aren't the only missing figure.  Oil producers can speculate by leaving oil stocks in the ground:  e.g., cutting production.  That said, I'm not sure that's interesting; we already know that production declines will drive prices up.  

So can we see evidence for or against speculation in these graphs alone, or do we need more data?  I'm sure I was sending a signal to the Saudi photographer who took this picture; I'm just not sure what.