The Power and the Money

Economics, explained

I'm missing Carlos's posts already, and I see him offline all the time.

I haven't been able to keep the slack:  things are incredibly busy right now, especially with teaching.  Teaching is fun, but teaching is hard.  This video, filmed at last year's American Economics Association conference, shows just how hard.   

An interesting paper presentation below the fold.  These presentations are tough (if not as tough as teaching):  you've got to cram a lot of information into only five minutes of airtime, if that.

Piratas atacan la madre patria

Newsflash:   pirates just captured a Spanish fishing boat off the coast of Somalia.  A Spanish frigate has been dispatched from the Red Sea and Madrid has requested assistance from NATO countries with a naval presence in the area. 

Considering as I just posted about pirates, I figured that it'd be remiss not to mention that the French raid doesn't seem to had an immediate deterrent effect.  Not that there's anything surprising about that.

Pirates!

In a scene of most superior uber-cool, the French military arrested the Somali pirates who’d captured a cruise vessel returning from the Seychelles on April 4th. 

So, of course, the New York Times would take the opportunity to publish an op-ed blaming namby-pamby British cupcakes for failing to enforce international law by arresting Somali pirates.  Why did the author claim that the Brits were wussing out? Because they were all worried that these scurrilous lawbreakers might claim asylum if they were brought back to the U.K.  Worse yet, the Somali government might violate their human rights if they were turned over to Mogadishu.   

“The British attitude has come a long way since the days when pirates were chained to pilings at Wapping and left there until the tidal water of the Thames ebbed and flowed over the bodies three times. So much for Britannia ruling the waves.”

Sounds good, right?  Fits a whole narrative of European decline, although, well, the part about French military prowess doesn’t quite fit.   

Too bad it’s all complete crapola.  Details below the fold.

Senator Wyden is my hero

In a parallel universe, I'd ask our non-American readers to tell me what they think of this TV spot.  Thing is, most of your won't say anything, save for a few ironic remarks that will whizz right over my head and knock a hole in the window overlooking my balcony.   

But whatever.  The below advert really is funny, and it is for a good bill which moves the U.S. very close to a German-style health care system.  One snag is that a lot of Americans are very satisfied with their current coverage, and have reason to fear switching to a fund regulated by a Health Help Agency instead of one chosen by their employer.  Another is that it mandates health care, which will provide a lightning rod for opposition. That said, seven Republicans have signed on, and like I said, the video is rather funny.  Especially for a political spot. 

Comedy is certainly looming ever-larger in American political discourse.  Hillary, Obama, and John Edwards all appeared on the Colbert Report yesterday and even John McCain used to be pretty good on the Daily Show, before he retreated to "crazy base world." 

So, what the heck.  I'm still curious.  Let's enter that parallel universe.  Readers!  Are the above videos cleverly amusing to you, or just silly?  Would humor like this work in your country?  Do your politicians even try to be funny?  If not, why not?  If so, how differently?  Inquiring minds want to know. 

On the Beach

The coast of Hispaniola around Santo Domingo is, well, different. 

No, wait, that doesn't quite capture it.  This captures it.

It's not just the city proper; the coast looks like a crumbling plate from the air.  Can anyone explain what causes it?  Is this an intermediate stage between seafront cliffs and a real beach, or something else?

Why I was in the Dominican Republic

To gather historical data obtainable only in the Archivo General de la Nación.

If there's interest, I'll discuss what the project is about in a later post.  Right now, I'll say that the Archivo was a great place to work.  The staff is incredibly helpful, and the reading room is rather pleasant, although the air-conditioning system was one of the loudest I've ever run across.  Thankfully, the Archivo has its own backup power system, and therefore was only hit with one brownout while I was working there. 

There was one pleasant mustacchioed old fellow there, quite garrulous.  I think he was a professor or former professor:  he was always nattily-dressed in jacket-and-tie, and he was usually assisted by some rather younger women.  At one point he turned to me and asked, "Are you from here?"  I smiled and said no.  He nodded, and asked if I were from Mexico or the U.S.  I lied, of course, at which point he said to me, and this was as weird as it sounds, "In the time of Trujillo, things were orderly." 

I later got the opportunity to glance at the 1940s-era newspapers that he was reviewing.  I'm fairly certain that he wasn't looking at the ads, but I found this one too striking not to record for posterity.

Extranjero vecino, indeed.

Dolarización y pesificación en el extranjero vecino

The Dominican Republic, like much of the extranjero vecino, is economically-married to the United States.  Far more so, in fact, that any of the Russian Federation’s near abroad.  The U.S. absorbs 72% of the country’s exports and provides 48% of its imports.  Americans and Dominicans resident in the United States make up 38% of all tourist arrivals.  Finally, and most strikingly, the huge hole in the Dominican Republic’s trade balance left after export sales and tourism receipts is plugged by remittances from Dominican workers living in the United States — an amount equal to 7 percent of the country’s GDP last year. 

The relationship goes beyond mere commercial convenience:  under CAFTA, Washington effectively sets Santo Domingo’s investor protections, labor standards, and environmental regulations.  Eat yer heart out, Vlad.

Still, there is one way in which the United States is conspicuously absent from Dominican life — the main currency is the “gold peso,” not the greenback.  That also wasn’t always true:  between 1905 and 1946, the Dominican Republic used the dollar as its currency, and if anything, the economic relationship is closer now than it was then.  This brings up three obvious questions, of course.  Why did the D.R. reintroduce its own currency?  What effects did that have?  And should it go back to the dollar? 

I’ll try to take a stab at all three below the fold.

Russia:Finland::Mexico:United States?

A while ago, Doug Muir argued that air travel belonged in the category of "things least likely to change in the next quarter-century."  I'd like to propose the experience of crossing the U.S.-Mexico border to that list.  (Legally or illegally.)

There are serious proposals to erase, or at least massively alter, that border.  Most recently, Douglas Massey proposed that the U.S. follow the E.U. model in dealing with Mexican immigration:  massive aid, open borders, and common institutions.

It will never happen.  The barriers aren't just on the U.S. side -- Mexicans don't have a whole lot of desire to subordinate their national sovereignty in what will inevitably be American-run common institutions. 

The other way to go is to try to replicate this version of the Finno-Russian border.  That's also impossible, of course.  Millions of Americans of Mexican-descent live on the U.S. side of the border, and somewhere between 300,000 and a million Americans of non-Mexican descent live on the Mexican side.  In California, around 35,000 people commute every day from Tijuana to their jobs in San Diego.  (That was 2.7% of all workers in metro San Diego in 1998.)  Another 10,000 drive south from their U.S. homes to their Mexican jobs.  The same pattern occurs in Arizona and Texas. 

Hard to see how you can get the support for Finno-Russian style quasi-militarization under those circumstances.  Plus, our border has much better weather than their border. 

My prediction?  The U.S.-Mexico border won't look much different in 10 years.  In 20, there will be less illegal immigration, as migration from Mexico slows as Mexico grows.  But the experience of muddling across at Laredo or Nogales won't look or feel much different, except maybe in the cool electronic passports we'll all use ... although Charlie Stross mentions reasons why that might not happen either. 

Hat tip:  Matt Yglesias.

Nobody likes my shirt

One way of telling a Boricua isn't always accurate.

Amma, my father, nobody else likes it.  No clue why.

Mas sabiduría del occidente para los griegos

This is not a joke.  But it is nonetheless very very funny.

I love it!  Now, again, please get over the whole name thing.  Please.

Hat tip:  Ross Douthat.  Commentary worth clicking the link.  And me say that I myself want to see a map where Canada includes all the West Indies, call it Absolut Caribe.  Anyone have their own irredentisms (or reverse irredentisms) that they'd like to see on a bus stop billboard for an alcoholic drink?  Suggestions in comments, please.

Estar de acuerdo con el sentimiento en la madre patria

The post after my next post will be about the Dominican Republic.  The next post will be controversial.  In preparation, therefore, I am going to resurrect something from the madre patria about which I am sure that we can all agree.

And we're all a part of the:

Although I'm not so sure about this:

UPDATE:  Here's a close-up of the above building, with the sign in question more visible.

Horserace blogging

In the spring a young man's fancy lightly turns to thoughts of the general election.

Like many, I have wondered, why does she do it?  Unlike many, I am loth to think ill of her.  Perhaps I am too charitable, perhaps I am too quick to forgive and forget, or perhaps I can in fact think of a good and legitimate reason for her to keep running.  Which would be, in light of Wright, that she honestly believes that the black guy Obama can't win in the fall.

Well, the state polls are now in.  Of course, it's early.  The electorate hasn't gotten much of a critical look at Mr. McCain yet, so they're mostly biased in his favor.  In addition, much depends on your theory of scandals.  If you believe that the big impact is immediate, then Obama is over the hump.  If, on the other hand, you believe that endless flogging of the Reverend Wright's intemperate comments only slowly alters perceptions, then he is not.  But those are caveats, and anyway, with the Democratic race still not over, the data we have are the data we have.

And here's what they show:

The blue states lean Democratic under both candidates.  The red states lean Republican under both candidates.  The white states are toss-ups under both candidates. 

The interesting states are the brown and purple ones.  The brown states lean to the GOP under Obama, but Hillary pulls them into the Democratic camp.  The purple ones, meanwhile lean to the GOP under Hillary (except Nevada, which is a toss-up), but lean Democratic if Obama gets the nod. 

Similarly, although the map doesn't show it, McCain's support drops precipitously in Georgia, Mississippi, Montana, and North Carolina if Obama is the candidate, although not by enough to put the Democrats ahead.   

So this is the current state of the race.  Does it match your instincts?  If not, why not?  And what are the implications for the "electability" argument?

Interlude: Obra blanca

I may have a little more to say about the Dominican Republic, including an answer to Will's original query.  But first, a report from Miami.

Financial collapses take some time, you see.  And so, this 28-story condominium is still going up within spitting distance of the Sawgrass Mills mall, on the very edge of the Everglades.  Turns out that the architect screwed up the specifications for the awnings, which needed to be bigger.  And so, who you gonna call?

Right!  My older brother, pictured above, in the sunglasses.  (You can also see the back of my cousin Larry's head.)  My brother runs a contract air-conditioning company based in Fort Lauderdale.  Larry and his brother Jesse started the firm and still own it:  South Florida in the 1970s was the right place at the right time to start installing AC systems; they soon moved into service followed by contract manufacturing.  (How d'ya think I found out about the Trinidadian air conditioning industry?)  When I was a teenager, I spent summers cutting fiberglass for them at $5.00 an hour; $9.37 in today's devalued money. 

And so, when you need to airlift a 2000-pound slab of concrete 28 stories in to the air, Thermal Concepts is the place to go.

That helicopter was built for the Army during the Korean War.  More below the fold.

Movin’ on up

Here’s a brief primer on Dominican politics.  Leonel Fernández took over in 2004 in the wake of a severe economic collapse.  (More about that below the fold, with pictures.)  After cleaning up the mess Hipólito Mejía left behind, he’s presided over a fairly strong economic recovery.  He built a lot of infrastructure — most prominently, that subway line — and created programs to attract a boatload of foreign investment, particularly into tourism.  He also hiked taxes and privatized the phone company, pulling out a fiscal surplus in 2007.  Finally, he created Vamo’ Arriba — which quite literally translates into “Movin’ on Up,” presumably to a departamento de lujo en el cielo — a Dominican version of Roosevelt’s WPA that pays roughly $87 a month for three months in exchange for community service, cleaning out canals and the like, after which the recipient qualifies for a small business loan from a program called “Promipyme.”   

Fernández is currently tipped to win in the first round of the election on May 16th.  His opponent, Manuel Vargas of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD), is popularly thought to have links to organized crime.  The PRD has struck back by accusing Fernández of using Vamo’ Arriba to buy votes and spending government money on his campaign.  In addition, the government faces strikes from doctors, teachers, and transport workers.  A demonstration on March 12th met water cannons, and teachers in the town of Bani have walked off the job claiming that they haven’t been paid in a year.

The graffito calls for a strike on April 9th.  More below the fold.