I think so, but there are reasons to believe that is wrong.
Sean Trende has an electoral simulator not unlike my own. Of course, I cannot get into his code, so I’m not sure what the underlying assumptions are about demographic change in 2012-16. But here is what you get if you assume that African-American and white turnout will return to 2004 levels, while the GOP loses one-third of the Latino votes that Romney got in 2012.
Oh, wait, that is the same as the 2012 map. For the GOP to win, even under the above assumptions, you need to up its share of national white vote from 60% to 64%. His model shows Virginia flipping at 62%, Florida and Ohio at 63%, and then Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin for the win at 64%.
I think the difference is that I assume (based on past elections) that the white vote in the Badger State is far stickier than those flighty white people over in Michigan.
In the Trende model, a 3-point uniform swing with high white turnout will swing Wisconsin but not Michigan. That is not unreasonable, but it gets you the rather odd electoral map on the right.
Of course, if you assume that Trump will lose half the Latino and Asian-American vote, as opposed to a third of the former and none of the latter, then all the above assumptions won’t help. Under his model, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia flip, but the Democratic candidate still wins.
I do not really believe a scenario in which Virginia flips that early despite a crash in the GOP share of the Latino and Asian-American vote, but Trende is paid to do this stuff and I am not. He is also very smart. And the general result seems to hold. For a GOP candidate to win while alienating minorities, they need an electoral path right through the old Rust Belt, be it Wisconsin or Michigan or Pennsylvania.